larry sabato jumps the shark
Political junkies know (and veteran political operatives roll their eyes at) University of Virginia professor Larry Sabato for his political analysis. In the days before every goddamned registered voter had a political analysis blog, his Crystal Ball was a valuable resource for those of us who couldn’t afford one of the National Journal’s phenomenally encyclopaedic (but rather expensive) Almanac of American Politics. Today, however, is not a good day to be Larry Sabato. He, along with Brookings fellow Thomas Mann and Emory prof Alan Abramowitz, penned an uncharacteristically shrill column on the site this week about the fools who dare to call this election anything but over:
. . .[V]irtually all of the evidence that we have reviewed–historical patterns, structural features of this election cycle, and national and state polls conducted over the last several months–point to a comfortable Obama/Democratic party victory in November. Trumpeting this race as a toss-up, almost certain to produce another nail-biter finish, distorts the evidence and does a disservice to readers and viewers who rely upon such punditry. Again, maybe conditions will change in McCain’s favor, and if they do, they should also be accurately described by the media. But current data do not justify calling this election a toss-up.
Let’s forget Gerald Ford’s comeback from thirty-three points down against Jimmy Carter in 1976. Quinnipiac University says McCain is closing in today, tightening the race in several battleground states. Don’t get me wrong, Obama still has the wind at his back. But I’m going to need to see some food multiplied and lepers healed before I accept him as my Lord and Savior.